Surveyors must act now to avoid ecosystem collapse

The government published the first National security assessment on global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security in February. 

This article summarises the background information in the report, which provides important context as to why biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse matter. It then sets out the threats to national security that the government has identified before highlighting some actions for surveyors.

National security risk assessments are regularly published and used to update the National Risk Register, which provides the public-facing summary of risks facing the country. 

Although biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse are not explicitly listed in the most recent National Risk Register, several of the risks cited are also a threat to ecosystems. The importance of this new national security assessment about biodiversity loss is clear.

The new assessment also provides context for much of the new Land Use Framework. 

The security assessment starts with the seven key judgements and their analytical confidence rating. It then gives an overview of how national security is assessed, based on a literature review and expert judgement, as well as an explanation of how the authors deal with uncertainty. 

Next, current trends in biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse and what these mean for national security are presented. Finally, the assessment focuses on the potential impacts of ecosystem degradation or collapse on our food security.

Ecosystems are a 'community of living organisms (plants, animals, fungi and various microbes) in conjunction with the non-living components of their environment (such as energy, air, water and mineral soil), all interacting as a system'.

Biodiversity is the 'variability among living organisms from all sources, including terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are a part’.

Humans derive numerous benefits from ecosystems, termed ecosystem services, which 'include provisioning services such as food and water; regulating services such as flood and disease control; and cultural services such as recreation and sense of place'. 

These ecosystem services directly contributed an estimated at £1.8 trillion to the UK economy in 2022.

But the ability of ecosystems to deliver these critical benefits is compromised if they are degraded, which over time can lead to ecosystem collapse – a 'critical threshold beyond which an ecosystem is potentially irreversibly changed and can no longer maintain essential structure or function'.

The report paints a sobering picture of the extent of global biodiversity loss between 1970 and 2020. For example, wildlife populations have declined by 73%, and loss is happening across terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems. 

These trends are mirrored in the UK, where flowering plant species have declined by 54%, and terrestrial and freshwater species by 19% over the same period.

The reasons for biodiversity loss are complex and interrelated – the assessment highlights food production as the primary cause, alongside climate change, land and sea use change, pollution and invasive species.

The assessment reports that if biodiversity loss continues 'every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse'. 

It identifies six ecosystems that are critical to UK national security: 

• the Amazon rainforest
• Congo Basin 
• coral reefs and mangroves in South East Asia 
• the Himalayas and 
• the boreal forests of Russia and Canada. 

The report highlights that there is a 'high degree of uncertainty around the timing and pathways of ecosystem collapse', but suggests that some ecosystems may start to collapse in the next five years, and that some collapse may be 'inevitable'.

Natural disasters, including storms and floods, will become more frequent and severe, as will heatwaves, and infectious diseases will become more likely. 

The assessment presents the pathway of 'cascading risks' from degraded ecosystem function (e.g. water regulation, pollination, air quality), to the biological and physical impacts (e.g. water scarcity, temperature rise, floods), through to human security risk (e.g. supply chain disruption, pandemics and poverty) and finally international security risks (e.g. migration, extremism and conflict).

The key judgements with a high analytical confidence rating (AnCR) are as follows.

• 'Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity'.
• 'Critical ecosystems that support major global food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security'.
• 'Ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions'.

Those with a moderate AnCR are as follows.

• 'Cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources'.
• 'All countries are exposed to the risks of ecosystem collapse within and beyond their borders'.
• 'Without significant increases in UK food system and supply chain resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food'.

Finally, the only judgement with a low AnCR is this.

• 'There is a realistic possibility that some ecosystems start to collapse from 2030, and others start to collapse from 2050'.

The assessment highlights a particular risk to the UK's food security from these cascading risks, due to the reliance on imports and vulnerability of our agricultural system. 

The UK imports 40% of its food and is unable to be self-sufficient at present. Global ecosystem collapse could limit our ability to import food and risk food security. At the same time, unsustainable agricultural practices, biodiversity loss and climate change have resulted in depleted soils, floods and droughts, and a reduction in pollinators in the UK.

The implications will be different depending on the area of surveying practice – some will be focused on protecting and restoring ecosystems to limit their degradation, others on increasing resilience to reduce our vulnerability should global ecosystems collapse.

Get up to speed: surveyors and their contractors will increasingly need a high level of ecological and climate literacy to anticipate risks and vulnerability. You should invest in CPD to increase your understanding of the importance of biodiversity and functioning ecosystems, your relationship with climate change, and how these can be safeguarded, what to look for in supply chains and how to advise clients. RICS' Sustainability practice for surveyors global guide, published in June 2026, is an excellent source of information.

Understand places as a system: globalisation means that our actions in one location have severe consequences in another. Ecosystems, climate, energy, materials, waste and water are all connected. Surveyors can prioritise construction materials from sustainable sources and use their soft power to drive up standards. Agriculture is a large driver of biodiversity loss and is also vulnerable to the impacts of ecosystem collapse. Rural land surveyors should advise their clients on more sustainable practices, both to restore nature on their land and increase their resilience to future shocks.

Think global, act local: ecosystem function is important in urban areas; the value of ecosystem services in the UK were estimated as £792bn in 2020. Urban development has an important role to play in protecting, restoring and enhancing ecosystems by focusing development on the sites with the least ecological value and ensuring new development contributes to nature recovery – including going beyond the 10% requirements for biodiversity net gain. As global ecosystems collapse, this will ensure our towns and cities are more resilient to climate risks. Those working on new developments or retrofitting existing places can ensure they provide quality green infrastructure and adhere to the Urban Greening Factor or equivalent. Actions such as providing space for food growing, including sustainable drainage systems and other nature-based solutions, will reduce vulnerability to ecosystem collapse and climate change.

The assessment makes it clear that significant investment is needed to drive innovation in agriculture and this is likely to take time, whereas 'protecting and restoring ecosystems is easier, cheaper and more reliable'. 

It summarises the measures agreed by the UN Biodiversity Conference in 2022 that would need to be taken to 'halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030'. These include protecting 30% of global land and ocean, 30% of global nature to be under restoration and mobilising finance, alongside meeting the Paris climate agreement to limit warming by 1.5^oC. 

These deadlines are fast approaching, so surveyors must act now to support clients to move towards more sustainable land management and procurement practices. We need to ensure new developments make efficient use of land – prioritising brownfield land and other sustainable locations, and deliver more nature- and climate-friendly developments.